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Global
Climate System
Source:
Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis, WHO & UNEP, 2001
CO2
Emissions Among ASEAN Countries
Climate
Scenarios in Malaysia
Climate
Scenarios for Malaysia based on Third Assessment Report (TAR) of
the IPCC
| Year
|
2025
|
2050
|
2100
|
| Carbon
Dioxide Concentration |
405
- 460 ppm
|
445
- 460 ppm
|
540
- 970 ppm
|
| Mean
Temperature Rise |
0.2 - 0.4 °C
|
0.3
- 1.0 °C
|
0.6
- 2.3 °C
|
| Mean
Precipitation Change |
-
5 % to + 5 %
|
- 5 % to + 5 %
|
-
5 % to + 5 %
|
| Mean
Sea-Level Rise |
3
- 14 cm
|
5
- 32 cm
|
9
- 88 cm
|
(Source:
Chan K.W., 2002; IPCC, 2001)
Socio-Economic
Impacts In Malaysia
Projected
Socio-Economic Impacts resulting from Sea Level Rise
| Type
of Impact |
Socio-economic
Impacts based on the High Rate of Sea Level Rise (0.9cm/yr) |
| Loss
of agricultural production from eroded/inundated lands |
RM
46 million for Western Johor Agricultural Development Project
area. The West Johor Project area accounts for about 25% of
the national drainage areas |
| Displacement
and relocation of flood victims with associated disruption of
business / economic activities resulting from increased flooding |
Long-term
annual flood damage estimated at about RM88 million for Peninsular
Malaysia and RM12 million for Sabah / Sarawak based on 1980
price level. If the flood frequency is doubled, the annual flood
damage will increase by 1.67 times |
| Loss
of fisheries production due to mangrove loss |
RM300
million loss based on 20% loss of mangrove resulting in a loss
of about 70,000 tonnes of prawn production valued at RM4,500
/ tonne |
| Interruption
of port operation |
May
see some improvement due to reduced siltation |
(Source: Malaysia Initial National Communication,
2000)
Projected
Climate Change Impacts in Malaysia
Summary
Possible Effects of Climate Change on Public Health
| Climate
Change scenario |
Temperature
change +0.6 to 3.4°C in 60 years
Rainfall
-1 to +32% in 60 years
Sea
Level 13 - 94 cm in 100 years
|
| Health
concerns |
Region-specific
scenarios are not available. Predictions have to be general
and speculative |
| Vector-borne
diseases - tropics, sub-tropics to temperature zones |
Dengue
- Increase in urban areas. High rainfall required for
high transmission
Malaria
- Specific temperature & rainfall requires for vector
breeding. Increase in sea level & deforestration without
proper and sound land use may lead to increased vector breeding
ground
Transmission
Areas
Seasonal
areas - Increase in desease due to loss of immunity
Perennial
areas - Increase due to improved vector breeding conditions
Viral
Diseases - Increase with increases in humidity & temperature.
Can change from endemic to epidemic farms. E.g. Japanese encephalitis
|
| Water-borne
diseases - tropics and sub-tropics |
Little
can be said about th edirect effect of climate change on these
pathogens
Bacterial
- Escherichia coli, Vibro cholera, Salmonella sp
Viral
- Hepatitis A, Poliomyelitis
Protozoa
- Giardia sp. Amoeba sp.
|
| Airborne
diseases |
Increase
in particulate (PM10) concentrations, high temperatures and
humidity cause / aggravate conjunctivitis, bronchitis &
asthma |
(Source: Malaysia Initial National
Communication, 2000)
Emissions
& Removal of GHGs for Each Sectors in Malaysia
Summary
of National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removal in 1994
|
Sectors
|
CO2
Equivalent (Gg)
|
| Energy
|
CO2
CH4
N2O
|
84,415
13,335
102
|
| Sub
total |
97,852
|
| Industrial
Processes |
CO2 |
4,973
|
| Sub
total |
4,973
|
| Agriculture |
CH4
N2O
|
6,909
16
|
| Sub
total |
6,925
|
| Land
Use Change and Forestry |
CO2(Emission)
CO2(Sink)
CH4
N2O
|
7,636
-68,717
3
0.3
|
| Sub
total |
7,639
|
| Waste |
CO2
CH4
|
318
26,607
|
| Sub
total |
26,925
|
|
Total
(emissions only)
Net
total (after subtracting sink)
|
144,314
75,597
|
(Source: Malaysia Initial National
Communication, 2000)
|
